Jim sat down last week with Kori Schake, senior fellow and the director of foreign and defense policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute, on The President’s Inbox. They discussed where the war in Ukraine is headed.

Here are five highlights from their conversation:

1.) The front lines of the war haven’t changed much since the start of the counteroffensive. Kori pointed to the difficulty of clearing deeply entrenched Russian troops sitting behind heavily mined front lines. She attributed Russia’s ability to fortify its defenses in part to the Joe Biden administration, whose “six months of slow dispersal of weapons to Ukraine gave the Russians time to dig in.” She also noted the incredible difficulty of clearing minefields, while adding “the Ukrainians are doing it methodically.”

2.) Ukraine’s main military successes in 2023 were pushing back the Russian Navy in the Black Sea and putting Russian troops in Crimea at risk. Ukraine’s top general described the fighting in November as having reached “stalemate.” Kori pointed out, however, that the Ukrainian military succeeded in putting the Russians on the defensive in the Black Sea and Crimea, both of which are critical to Moscow’s ability to supply its troops in Ukraine. Kori noted the Black Sea was now “largely open” again, a “big achievement and not just for Ukraine but for countries that rely on lower-cost grain exports from Ukraine.” She also observed that Ukraine’s advances in the southeast of the country “put Russian forces in Crimea at risk and Russian logistics to and from Crimea at risk.”

3.) Long-range precise weaponry could change the war’s trajectory. The United States, France, and the United Kingdom have begun supplying Ukraine with long-range precision weapons. However, the Biden administration bars Ukraine from using U.S.-provided weapons against Russian troops in Russia. Kori argued that the administration’s decision reflects concerns “about preventing escalation either vertical escalation (that is, Russia crossing the nuclear threshold and employing nuclear forces against Ukraine) or horizontal escalation (expanding the war to try and draw in NATO allies or to try and draw in the United States).” Kori argued that letting Kyiv use long-range weapons to target Russian territory could shift momentum to Ukraine. She argued that “when your adversary in a war has a sanctuary, it is very difficult to succeed against it.”

4.) Crisis stability between the United States and Russia is sturdier than is often suggested. Kori acknowledged that concerns about escalation are “justified.” She argued, however, that the Biden administration gives “too much weight” to escalation fears. Russia doesn’t want the United States to fight alongside Ukraine. Just as the United States is deterred from taking certain actions against Russia, so too is Russia. Kori acknowledged, however, that the very “artistry of deterrence” is making the right calculation about how many steps to take without going a step too far.

5.) Ukraine fatigue is growing in Western countries. Last year, the U.S. Congress welcomed Ukrainian President Zelensky as a hero. His appearance in Washington earlier this month did nothing to break the logjam on Capitol Hill over further aid to Ukraine. Kori pointed out that most members of Congress support providing aid to Ukraine. Some Republican members of Congress are using the aid as a political bargaining tool. In short, “they're playing hardball to force the president to engage on issues he otherwise wouldn't, in particular on border security.” This political hardball, however, comes at a price for Ukraine. “Republicans are doing actual damage to Ukraine's war effort by exacting this domestic political price from the president,” Kori acknowledged. “It will make Russians more confident that as long as they persevere, we will eventually let our domestic politics overwhelm our strategic interests in Ukraine's victory.”

If you’re looking to learn more about the war in Ukraine, Tom Graham explained how Ukraine has managed to hold off Russia’s military for this long. CFR’s Global Conflict Tracker discusses the war’s origins and recent developments. CFR has also produced a backgrounder on the conflict and an In Brief that analyzes the effect sanctions are having on Russia’s economy.

Over the past year, The President's Inbox has covered the war from different angles, including “Ukraine’s 2023 Counteroffensive,” “Global Food Insecurity,” “Assessing the NATO Summit,” “U.S. Strategy in Ukraine,” and “The Long War in Ukraine.”